When the Covid pandemia hit, the factories in China closed and the global shipping traffic slowed down. In a matter of a few weeks, the products amazed the disappearance of the shelves of US stores and US companies that defend about foreign materials were going to leave the business.
A similar trend is beginning to develop, but this time the catalyst is the decision of President Trump to increase tariffs on Chinese imports to a minimum of 145 percent, an amount so high that much of the trade between the United States and China has stopped. Less mass container ships have been placing the ocean between Chinese and American ports, and in the coming weeks, Chinese Farer products will reach the US coast.
Although the high rates in Chinese products have been in force since the beginning of April, the availability of Chinese products and the price that consumers pay for them has not changed so much. But some companies are now beginning to increase their prices. And experts say that the effects will become increasingly obvious in the next week, since a wave of change of change of Margo’s change of the orders caneled in Chinese factories makes its way to the United States.
The number of mass container ships that transport metal boxes of toys, furniture and other products that leave China for the United States has collapsed in approximately one third this month.
The reason why consumers cease to be many of the effects is because it takes between 20 and 40 days when a container ship travels through the Pacific Ocean. Then take another to 10 days for Chinese products to break through train or truck to several cities from all over the country, the economists of Apollo Global Management wrote in a recent report. That means that the highest tariffs in China that entered into force in early April are beginning to give rise to a drop in the number of ships that reach US ports, a trend that should intense.
At the end of May or early June, consumers could begin to see some empty shelves, and layoffs could occur for retailers and logistics industries. The main effects on the economy of the United States to close trade with China will begin to become teams in the summer of 2025, when the United States could fall into a recession, said Torsten Slok, Apollo economist.
“American consumers will be seen within a few weeks of empty shelves in clothing stores, toy stores, hardware stores and retail pharmacies, and higher prices of products that are still on the shelves,” he said.
Molson Hart, Viahart’s executive director, a toy company, wrote in X: “It is almost as if we were accelerating towards a brick wall, but the driver of the car does not see it yet. By when he does, it will be too late to stop.”
The decrease in Chinese imports will be amplified on Friday, when the United States eliminates the so -called minimis treatment for Chinese products. The rule has allowed products of up to $ 800 to avoid tariffs provided they are sent directly to consumers. He has promoted the business model of companies such as Temu and Shein, and has resulted in an individual increase or packages aimed at the United States, many of which are sent by air.
Change supporters say that this tariff lagoon has given Chinese loaders an unfair advantage and has harmed US companies. But the decision to get rid of him is already resulting in high prices for US consumers. And it is expected that the change despite the airlines and private carriers such as Fedex, which have a constant commercial delivery of small dollars.
Port workers and logistics companies have been waiting for their own interruptions. In the port of Los Angeles, the main point of entry for Chinese products that arrive in the United States, imports increased in recent months as companies and consumers tried to supply goods before the rates that enter into force. But that activity has now begun to decrease.
The number of containers that arrive at the port of Los Angeles fall more than 35 percent next week compared to the same period last year, according to the port data. Gene Seroka, the executive director of the port, said that a quarter of the ships they had scheduled for May had canceled due to the volume of light.
Approximately two weeks ago, the goods that arrive at the port from China have been “very few and distant between,” said Seroka.
The data show that heavy truck sales have also fallen abruptly, suggesting that companies in the logistics space expect Fower products in the future.
Commerce experts say that compensated have stored sufficient inventory in recent months that, if the White House reverses the course soon and significantly eliminates tariffs on China, much of the pain for the economy of the United States and consumers can go to those who can be avocated. The data of the Supply Management Institute show that US inventories are at their highest level in more than two years.
Gabriel Wildou, managing director of Teneo, who advises companies about doing business with China, said that Chinese products that American retailers had stored in the first three months of the year Windle give the stores that need to be collected. But if the situation does not change rapidly, American consumers will feel that the impact of commercial changes develops in the next three to six months, he said.
“We are going to have high prices and, in some cases, empty shelves,” he said.
Trump officials have admitted that they could be some interruptions for consumers. The president seemed to recognize on Wednesday that his commercial changes could lead to Feer goods and higher prices.
“You know, someone said:” Oh, the shelves will be open, “Trump said from the White House.” Well, maybe children have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know? And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple more dollars than they would normally. “
But administration officials have said that any pain will be minimal. In an informative session of the White House on Tuesday, Scott Besent, secretary of the Treasury, said he did not expect to see the clashes of the American tariff supply chain about China. “I think the retailers have administered their inventory in front of this,” he said.
Some companies that are in a more fragile financial position have not been able to store legs and are quickly forced to get out of the business. Even if the Trump administration finds a way to reduce its tariffs on China, it is not clear that taxes will fall sufficiently to restart significant trade.
Many companies say that tariffs of more than 50 percent in Chinese imports are enough to stop trade completely. With rates now at a minimum of 145 percent, and in some cases much higher, that would mean that the Trump administration may have to eliminate its tariffs in China in at least 100 percentage points to significantly restart the flow of goods.
Trump officials have said that they believe that the current tariff rate with China is unsustainable, but they have concerns about Chinese commercial practices, and will be under pressure to demonstrate that they have obtained significant concessions from China in exchange for falling.
Ryan Petersen, the Flexport executive director, a supply chain company, said that, even before the president raised the tariffs on China to 145 percent this month, the rates that the Trump administration was in China were high, with a minimum of 54 percent.
“The reality is that 54 percent was already an incredible high rate rate,” Petersen said. “It depends on how far they arrive. If they return to 25 percent, maybe all this becomes a non -event.”
With such a lack of where global trade is directed, companies are freezing their expansion plans and stopping new orders.
The data show that the new orders of the manufacturers have abruptly rejected this year, while companies have cut their capital expense plans. Some important companies have stopped issuing guidance for sales and profits. Mercedes-Benz arrested his financial forecasts for 2025 on Wednesday, as well as Stellantis, what Chrysler, Dodge and Jeep brands does.
It is not clear how fast the current challenges of the supply chain could be resolved. But the duration of the pandemic, the interruptions of the supply chains touch much more to make their way through the economy of what most of the forecasts had anticipated.
Economists who initially expected the price increases to be transient were surprised by the inflationary pressures that remained for years. Small impacts also also had a way to stir for supply chains: for example, an interruption in the supply of one or two companions who made small pieces for cars or other machinery could end up stopping an important manufacturing plant, which found it that it didn’t have, it wasn’t, it wasn’t, it wasn’t it, it was not it it it it ul it ul it It it it it it it it it it it it is it it is it it it it it is it it it it is it it it the same was not it it was it was it it it it it or it is it no.
And when the economy turned on the initial pandemic interruptions again, the process was not soft. The Americans saw accumulations in the ports and the shortage of some goods, all of whom finally contributed to the high prices.
Mr. Petersen said that companies that operated container ships had already canceled a quarter of all navigations to the United States from China, and that they are writing their ships to travel to Southeast Asia and Europe. Even if the Trump administration eliminates its Chinese tariffs and the demand for Chinese consumer products resume, the ships won in the right place immediately to carry the same volume of goods, he said.
“You will see high prices, you will see delays,” added Mr. Petersen. “The more I expect to make changes, the more severe the shock will be.”
Danielle Kaye Contributed reports.
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